PBL

This study developed a predictive model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) during early pregnancy in a prospective cohort of 413 pregnant women, of whom 116 were diagnosed with GDM. Blood samples collected at 12–16 weeks and 24–26 weeks of gestation revealed significant differences in age, pre-pregnancy BMI, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), HbA1c, triglycerides, progesterone levels, IgA levels, B lymphocyte percentage, and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) status between GDM cases and controls. A nomogram incorporating these factors demonstrated strong predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.772 (95% CI: 0.602–0.942), well-calibrated predictions, and positive net benefit as shown by decision curve analysis (DCA). This novel nomogram provides a practical and effective tool for early GDM risk prediction, offering potential benefits for patient counseling and clinical management.